{"id":1190452,"date":"2026-02-17T07:37:37","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T07:37:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.polygon.com\/?p=546327"},"modified":"2026-02-17T07:37:37","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T07:37:37","slug":"game-of-the-year-2025-predictions-the-front-runners-and-challengers-to-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcader.org\/news\/game-of-the-year-2025-predictions-the-front-runners-and-challengers-to-come\/","title":{"rendered":"Game of the Year 2025 predictions: The front-runners and challengers to come"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The 11th Game Awards, scheduled for Dec. 11, are suddenly wide open. Grand Theft Auto 6<\/em>, which was previously expected to dominate<\/a> the Awards this year, has been delayed into 2026<\/a>. That will make for a much less predictable Game of the Year<\/a> competition at the leading awards ceremony for the game industry \u2014 the Oscars of gaming, as it were.<\/p>\n

The Game Awards\u2019 voting body<\/a> is composed of a wide range of international games media (Polygon included), with a 10% contribution from fan voting. There are a number of strong indicators<\/a> for what will perform well in the Game of the Year category. A high Metacritic rating (preferably over 90) is a must; role-playing games and action-adventures are strongly favored, as are games with strong narrative elements; indie and multiplayer games struggle harder for recognition than AAA single-player adventures. We used these metrics to correctly predict last year\u2019s winner, Astro Bot<\/em>. (We also got four of the six nominees right, and correctly called 14 other categories.) <\/p>\n

Below, you\u2019ll find our predictions for the most likely nominees, of which there are six each year, for Game of the Year 2025. Unlike the film industry, where most titles are known quantities well in advance, you never really know what kind of impact a video game will have, or how good it will be, until it\u2019s out. With that in mind, this list only includes games that are already out. We\u2019ll update these rankings throughout the year as new games are released. We\u2019ll also list some likely upcoming contenders and some of the 2025 GOTY race\u2019s dark horses, too.<\/p>\n

Update (May 2): <\/strong>Clair Obscur: Expedition 33<\/em> is newly installed as the GOTY favorite \u2014 and, given the GTA 6<\/em> delay, there\u2019s even a chance that Sandfall Interactive\u2019s debut game could go all the way. Its addition pushes Obsidian\u2019s Avowed<\/em> out of the the top 6, but that game remains a dark horse. (Speaking of which, we\u2019ve also added a dark horses section in this update.)<\/p>\n

GOTY front-runners<\/h2>\n

1. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33<\/a><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Why it could win: <\/strong>A critically acclaimed role-playing game, strong on storytelling and performance, thematically resonant but also fun, with slick production values and shiny graphics \u2014 this is the stuff Game of the Year winners are made of. It\u2019s an astonishing achievement from the relatively small debut team at Sandfall Interactive, which only adds to its cachet. The somewhat similar Metaphor: ReFantazio<\/em> was very strong in 2024. Expedition 33<\/em> is looking hard to beat.<\/p>\n

Weaknesses: <\/strong>While it\u2019s a minor hit, enough people need to play Expedition 33<\/em> \u2014 especially among the critical community \u2014 to keep it in the conversation for more than six months. Game Pass will help, but is it really big enough to win?<\/p>\n

2. Split Fiction<\/a><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Why it could win: <\/strong>Critical consensus is still the most reliable indicator of success at The Game Awards, and with a rating over 90 on both Metacritic and OpenCritic, Hazelight\u2019s co-op adventure is the clear front-runner in this regard. It\u2019s got a legacy advantage, too: Hazelight\u2019s previous game, It Takes Two<\/em>, won GOTY in 2021, and since then has amassed a massive popular following<\/a>. As a story-led action-adventure, Split Fiction <\/em>also belongs to a genre that the Game Awards jury has been known to favor in the past.<\/p>\n

Weaknesses: <\/strong>Perhaps It Takes Two<\/em>\u2019s win will count against it if jury members are looking for something different to reward. Also, while It Takes Two<\/em>\u2019s intensely personal story about divorce was unquestionably a strength, Split Fiction<\/em> has been praised more for its design than its abstract and overworked tale of writers adrift in virtual reality.<\/p>\n

3. Blue Prince<\/a><\/h3>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Why it could win: <\/strong>Indie games have a tough time breaking through into the main Game of the Year competition at The Game Awards, but there\u2019s often room for one, and Blue Prince<\/em> has got everything going for it. It has been met with overwhelming critical acclaim, with a 92 Metascore. Everyone in the critical\/voter community seems to be playing it. And its deep mystery, challenging puzzles, and intriguing narrative elements should keep the conversation going around it.<\/p>\n

Weaknesses: <\/strong>Blue Prince<\/em> is quite challenging and inscrutable by the standards of a typical Game Awards GOTY pick. Previous indie nominees like Stray<\/em> and Inside<\/em> are definitely more accessible and character-driven, while last year\u2019s similarly mysterious Animal Well<\/em> didn\u2019t make the cut. Also, if another great indie game comes along this year \u2014 Hades 2<\/em> for example \u2014 Blue Prince <\/em>will have to fight it for the single nomination that the indie gaming community seems to be allowed.<\/p>\n

4. Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2<\/a><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Why it could win: <\/strong>This could be this year\u2019s Black Myth: Wukong<\/em><\/a>: an ambitious hit game from a developer operating outside the gaming establishment, delivering on core gamers\u2019 ardent desire for massive solo adventures made without compromise. Deliverance 2 <\/em>is a realistic medieval RPG with strong storytelling, and critics really liked it (its Metascore is 88). Another similar game might be the 2015 GOTY winner, The Witcher 3<\/em>. This is right in The Game Awards\u2019 sweet spot. <\/p>\n

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Black Myth: Wukong <\/em>didn\u2019t win GOTY<\/a> \u2014 much to its producer\u2019s chagrin. Just like Black Myth<\/em>\u2019s Game Science, Kingdom Come developer Warhorse is considered politically radioactive by some, after founder Daniel V\u00e1vra made pro-Gamergate comments<\/a> in 2015. Perhaps more to the point, the game is a challenging time sink that isn\u2019t that broadly played among journalists and jurors, despite respectable sales.<\/p>\n

5. Monster Hunter Wilds<\/a><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Why it could win: <\/strong>Monster Hunter\u2019s steady climb from co-op curio, through handheld sensation, to AAA champion climaxed with the huge sales and glowing reviews of Wilds<\/em>. It\u2019s slick, it\u2019s gorgeous, and it\u2019s sanded off Monster Hunter\u2019s rough edges. (As a rule, the Game Awards jury isn\u2019t keen on rough edges.)<\/p>\n

Weaknesses: <\/strong>Although Wilds<\/em> gestures toward a more conventional RPG storytelling style than previous Monster Hunters, this is still a deeply systemic game in which the equipment grind matters way more than players\u2019 personal investment in the characters, and that\u2019s not The Game Awards\u2019 favorite look for a GOTY winner.<\/p>\n

6. Indiana Jones and the Great Circle<\/a><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Why it could win: <\/strong>It only missed the deadline for the 2024 awards by a week or two, but MachineGames\u2019 take on the indelible movie hero was swiftly acclaimed for all the things the jury likes to see: strong, performance-led storytelling, polished tech, high production values, a good mix of action and more cerebral play, and Troy Baker. It would almost certainly have been nominated for a GOTY 2024, and April\u2019s PlayStation 5 release will help keep Great Circle<\/em> in the conversation all the way up until the 2025 nomination process begins.<\/p>\n

Weaknesses: <\/strong>PS5 release notwithstanding, 12 months is an awfully<\/em> long time to stay relevant in the race. The Game Awards do not typically reward licensed games. And the mid-80s Metacritic and OpenCritic scores are good, but indicate the critical consensus on this game is a little softer than it first appeared.<\/p>\n

Dark horses<\/h2>\n

Avowed<\/em>: <\/strong>Obsidian Games\u2019 traditional fantasy RPG had a slightly soft critical reception, but a long tail and strong word of mouth, as players found its dependable, old-fashioned qualities tough to turn away from. With strong writing in a favored genre, it\u2019s the definition of a Game Awards dark horse.<\/p>\n

Assassin\u2019s Creed Shadows<\/em>:<\/strong> Ubisoft\u2019s latest is the closest thing to a traditional AAA contender in the early part of the year, and there was relief all round at its evident quality. But it doesn\u2019t seem to be exciting players or critics in the long term.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion Remastered<\/strong><\/em>:<\/strong> It\u2019s not out of the question for remakes and remasters to get nominated for GOTY \u2014 Capcom\u2019s had success with more than one of its Resident Evil remakes \u2014 but they usually need to be a bit more daring than this handsome reissue of the classic, but ageing, Bethesda RPG.<\/p>\n

Despelote<\/strong><\/em>:<\/strong> This Ecuadorian slice-of-life indie game about soccer and childhood is a minor critical sensation, with raves from some key reviewers. But it will need some virality to grow its cultural footprint enough to compete, and even then it seems unlikely to get past indie favorite Blue Prince<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Upcoming titles<\/h2>\n

Metroid Prime 4: Beyond<\/em>: <\/strong>Nintendo may well have multiple GOTY contenders in Switch 2\u2019s release year, but the only one we know about for sure is Retro Studios\u2019 very long-awaited return to the first-person sci-fi adventures of Samus.<\/p>\n

Hades 2<\/em>: <\/strong>Assuming it emerges from early access this year, Supergiant\u2019s roguelike sequel will likely be leading the indie contenders for the year \u2014 out to avenge the original game\u2019s perceived snub at the 2020 awards. (It\u2019s eligible regardless, but the jury prefers not to nominate early access games.)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Death Stranding 2<\/em>: <\/strong>Hideo Kojima is a Game Awards favorite and the original Death Stranding<\/em> contended strongly in 2019, although it ultimately lost to Sekiro<\/em>. Death Stranding<\/em> was divisive at the time, but in the years since, multiple rereleases have helped players get their heads around this singular vision, and with PlayStation\u2019s full muscle behind it, the sequel is sure to make a big splash.<\/p>\n

Ghost of Y\u014dtei<\/em>: <\/strong>No publisher has a better record at the Game Awards than Sony, and its other contender this year is this open-world samurai adventure \u2014 again, a sequel to a game (Ghost of Tsushima<\/em>) whose reputation has only grown over time. If nothing else, this more rarefied, bespoke-feeling release will probably edge out the similarly themed Assassin\u2019s Creed Shadows<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Donkey Kong Bananza<\/em>:<\/strong> Of Nintendo\u2019s two big Switch 2 launch titles, Bananza<\/em> is the likelier to score a GOTY nomination. Mario Kart World<\/em>, as a racing game, has next to no chance (Mario Kart 8<\/em> did not secure a nomination in 2014). The Game Awards have historically not been that kind to family-oriented platformers either, but Astro Bot<\/em>\u2019s 2024 win appeared to change that, which goes in Donkey Kong\u2019s favor \u2014 as long as the game can withstand the comparison.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 11th Game Awards, scheduled for Dec. 11, are suddenly wide open. Grand Theft Auto 6, which was previously expected to dominate the Awards this year, has been delayed into 2026. That will make for a much less predictable Game of the Year competition at the leading awards ceremony for the game industry \u2014 the Oscars of gaming, as it were. The Game Awards\u2019 voting body is composed of a wide range of international games media (Polygon included), with a 10% contribution from fan voting. There are a number of strong indicators for what will perform well in the Game of the Year category. A high Metacritic rating (preferably over 90) is a must; role-playing games and action-adventures are strongly favored, as are games with…<\/p>\n

Read More…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1190453,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1190452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polygon"],"yoast_head":"\nGame of the Year 2025 predictions: The front-runners and challengers to come | Arcader News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 11th Game Awards, scheduled for Dec. 11, are suddenly wide open. 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