{"id":1117714,"date":"2026-01-31T04:41:25","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T04:41:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.polygon.com\/?p=520290"},"modified":"2026-01-31T04:41:25","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T04:41:25","slug":"did-dragon-age-the-veilguard-undersell-or-face-unrealistic-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcader.org\/news\/did-dragon-age-the-veilguard-undersell-or-face-unrealistic-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Did Dragon Age: The Veilguard undersell or face unrealistic expectations?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This is not the first time I\u2019ve written about a video game that appears to have been sent out to die<\/a>, and I predict it will not be the last. The latest victim of the business is Dragon Age: The Veilguard<\/em>, which of course was one of the subjects of EA\u2019s February earnings call<\/a> with CEO Andrew Wilson.<\/p>\n

Dragon Age: The Veilguard<\/em> sold 1.5 million copies<\/a> in its first two months post-release \u2014 50% of what EA higher-ups expected for the game to sell in that time (or perhaps the better word is \u201cneeded,\u201d based on the budget). \u201cIn order to break out beyond the core audience, games need to directly connect to the evolving demand of players who increasingly seek shared world features and deeper engagement alongside high-quality narratives in this beloved category,\u201d Wilson said on the call. \u201cElectronic Arts had a high-quality launch and was well reviewed by critics and those who played. However, it did not resonate with a broad enough audience in this highly competitive market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many have zeroed in on the \u201cshared world features\u201d part of this quote, with some suggesting that Wilson is blaming Veilguard<\/em>\u2019s failure to hit sales targets on its lack of live-service elements. \u201cShared world elements\u201d would have been out of place in Veilguard<\/em>, to be sure. But the part I\u2019m fixated on is that last part, when Wilson says that Veilguard<\/em> \u201cdid not resonate with a broad enough audience in this highly competitive market.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no secret that 2024 was a huge year for RPGs<\/a>. And all of those RPGs had the arguable misfortune of following in the footsteps of the unexpected juggernaut that is Baldur\u2019s Gate 3<\/em><\/a>, which sold 2.5 million copies<\/a> after entering early access in 2020; since fully launching in 2023, it has sold 15 million copies and is still in Steam\u2019s top 20 most-played games<\/a>. Andrew Wilson will hear no argument from me about the \u201chighly competitive market\u201d for RPGs<\/a>. That would have been a steep uphill climb for the developers of Dragon Age: The Veilguard<\/em>.<\/p>\n

But the Veilguard<\/em> team was already climbing uphill for years before hitting the market. The game faced multiple redesigns<\/a>, several high-profile departures<\/a>, and staff layoffs<\/a> over the course of its 10-year development. The mere fact that this game took a decade to make would likely have caused its costs to be far more significant than the other RPGs with which it was competing for players\u2019 attention in 2024. To quote Bloomberg reporter (and my friend) Jason Schreier in his recent article about skyrocketing video game costs<\/a>: \u201cTo understand why video-game budgets have grown so rapidly, you have to understand where that money is actually going: paying people\u2019s salaries. […] So if you have 300 employees and you\u2019re estimating $20,000 a month for each one (got to pay good wages to compete in 2025), you\u2019re spending $72 million a year.\u201d<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know the exact salaries for all the employees who came and went over the course of Veilguard<\/em>, but it seems fair to say that its budget likely ballooned over the course of its long, tumultuous development time.<\/p>\n

\"\" \"\" \"\" \"\"<\/figure>\n

For further comparison: Metaphor: ReFantazio<\/em> had a similarly long development cycle, having first been announced in 2016. Last October, publisher Sega announced that Metaphor: ReFantazio<\/em> had sold 1 million copies<\/a>. Not so different from Veilguard<\/em>\u2019s numbers, except it wasn\u2019t considered a failure!<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s go to another example: the sales of Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth<\/em>, about which Square Enix higher-ups have been tight-lipped. This was a sequel, so the comparison might not feel entirely fair, but it is<\/em> from 2024, so it was definitely competing for players\u2019 attention alongside these other RPGs. Rebirth<\/em> had a four-year development cycle and has been widely described as underperforming after early estimates placed it at 2 million copies sold<\/a>. (FF7 Rebirth<\/em> recently came to PC via Steam and appears to be doing quite well<\/a>, but we\u2019re only talking about early sales numbers here.)<\/p>\n

Another 2024 RPG, Dragon\u2019s Dogma 2<\/em>, took five years<\/a> to develop. This game was considered a huge success for Capcom, selling 2.5 million copies in its first 11 days post-release<\/a>. The game eventually hit a milestone of 3.3 million<\/a> in October 2024, but based on EA\u2019s metrics and expectations shared on the earnings call, those early numbers are key.<\/p>\n

One more! Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth<\/em> took three years to develop, and it sold 1 million units<\/a> in its first week, according to a proud press release describing it as the \u201cfastest-selling title in the series.\u201d<\/p>\n

So why would Veilguard<\/em> be considered a failure by comparison? In terms of copies sold, it\u2019s in the ballpark of what one might expect compared to the other RPGs released in the same time period at the $70 price point. Selling 1.5 million units in the first quarter \u2014 heck, even just 1 million \u2014 seems on par with the number of people on this planet who buy RPG video games of this scope. <\/p>\n

The Metaphor: ReFantazio<\/em> comparison seems particularly telling to me, especially given its eight-year development timeline. Again, we can\u2019t see under the hood in terms of how much those developers\u2019 salaries actually are costing. But we do know that Metaphor<\/em> hasn\u2019t even managed to sell as many copies as Veilguard <\/em>up to this point, and when I Google the words \u201cAtlus layoffs,\u201d all I can find is this article from 2024 about how the studio raised<\/em> its workers\u2019 salaries<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

The Dragon Age series was, historically, successful enough to set high expectations for Veilguard<\/em> \u2014 but let\u2019s consider those numbers. Dragon Age: Inquisition<\/em> arrived in 2014 to a very different video game landscape with different costs. But, hey, what were those early sales numbers? 1.14 million units in the first week<\/a>. Now, Inquisition<\/em> went on to be the best-selling Bioware game of all time<\/a>, eventually hitting 12 million units \u2014 a mega-blockbuster. To contrast that with another entry in the series, Dragon Age 2<\/em> only has an estimated 2 million sales<\/a>. <\/p>\n

All this to say, EA CEO Andrew Wilson and the rest of EA leadership didn\u2019t just expect Dragon Age: The Veilguard<\/em> to sell on par with the inevitable competition, or even slightly above average. They expected it to be a huge, immediate hit \u2014 and they didn\u2019t just expect it, they budgeted <\/em>for it. Even though the entire year of other comparable RPGs leading up to Veilguard <\/em>proved the unlikelihood of this, those expectations didn\u2019t change. And then, unsurprisingly, Veilguard <\/em>failed to meet them.<\/p>\n

And so, even though the game sold just as well as it ordinarily would have for the type of game that it is and the time period in which it was released, BioWare still got hit with a post-release restructure and layoffs (the team size is estimated to be just 100 people<\/a> now) because Veilguard<\/em> needed to be not just a success, but a massive success. And it needed to become that successful in a year that also had multiple other amazing RPG releases preceding it. And it needed to do that after having one of the most infamously tortured development cycles I\u2019ve heard about in my entire journalistic career.<\/p>\n

Maybe the game did not resonate with a broad enough audience in this \u201chighly competitive market.\u201d But highly competitive expectations seem like an undeniable factor, too. <\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is not the first time I\u2019ve written about a video game that appears to have been sent out to die, and I predict it will not be the last. The latest victim of the business is Dragon Age: The Veilguard, which of course was one of the subjects of EA\u2019s February earnings call with CEO Andrew Wilson. Dragon Age: The Veilguard sold 1.5 million copies in its first two months post-release \u2014 50% of what EA higher-ups expected for the game to sell in that time (or perhaps the better word is \u201cneeded,\u201d based on the budget). \u201cIn order to break out beyond the core audience, games need to directly connect to the evolving demand of players who increasingly seek shared world features and…<\/p>\n

Read More…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1117715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1117714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polygon"],"yoast_head":"\nDid Dragon Age: The Veilguard undersell or face unrealistic expectations? | Arcader News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This is not the first time I\u2019ve written about a video game that appears to have been sent out to die, and I predict it will not be the last. 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